A football betting system is a set of rules or criteria applied across the statistics of past matches to supply the likely outcome of a match. There are football betting systems that cover finding the winner of the match, how many goals in a match and many more.
It seems that with each passing day there are more and more football systems out there being sold by self-declared experts that are sure to put you on the path to profit.
The sad thing is that none of them will win in the long term. The reasons are many. Firstly we have the badly researched system, where the creator has looked at a small set of data and highlighted some statistic that provided a profit over this period. If the period in question was expanded, the system would show a loss, but by concentrating on the small periods in time he used, the creator can make claims about the profitability of his system.
Next we have the system that was well researched and did actually make a profit over an extended period. The author then sells 1000 copies of the system. So we now have 1000 extra bets going on the selected football team. Naturally the prices of the teams involved will shorten and with that, any potential profit.
Next we have the system that tells you to increase your stake when you have a loser. This is often flaunted as a football betting system guaranteed to make profits no matter how bad you are at picking winners. The truth is that this mode of betting is guaranteed to lead you to bankruptcy. It relies on the fact that most people believe that the probability of an event occurring is affected by events that went before it.
Take the toss of a coin for example. If I get three Heads from three tosses, what is the probability that the next toss will yield a Tail? Some believe that the chances of getting a Tail are somehow increased because of the preceding Heads. The truth is that the chance of getting a Tail is still only 50%. Therein lies the problem with this system, as sooner or later, you will get a losing streak larger than the maximum you expected.
Let us compare this to betting with a promotion. A recent promotion was back a team and if they won you get $5 for every goal they scored. Let us say the team was priced at 1.20 and we placed $20 on it. Now with the sports book over round, the real price should probably have been around 1.25, this equates to an 80% chance of winning. Let us say that they always won 1-0, so we would get $5 for the goal. After 100 matches we have:
80 wins returning 1.20 x $20 = $1920
We have 80 goals returning = $5 x 80 = $400
We invest $20 x 100 = $2000 in total and we get back $2320, giving us a profit of $320.
Remember we assumed that all matches were going to end 1-0, but as you know, strong favourites can win 2-0, 2-1 or more, and every goal would give us an extra $5 profit. So we were really looking at the worst case scenario, something that football betting systems never do.
In conclusion, I urge you to forget about football betting systems and join us instead for a new way to profit.
